Posted at 02:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Business and Technology news site Xconomy has a great writeup on us, giving an update of where we're at. It mentions our Twitter account we use to notify people unusually high news volumes, and gives a brief description of one of our initial offerings.
Thanks, Greg, for the writeup!
Also... if you filled out our survey or signed up for our announcement list, you should be receiving some news from us soon. Stay tuned!
Posted at 07:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Our system has been processing business news articles for several months now, identifying the companies being reported on, as well as the nature of the news--good or bad. One of the first interesting things to extract from our data is "news volume breakouts", when the news volume for a company on a given day exceeds its 50 day running average volume by one or more standard deviations.
We have created a @marketoutsider twitter user to broadcast this information. The tweet broadcasts follow the @stocktwits convention of prefixing the ticker symbol with a dollar sign. Additionally, the ticker symbols are followed by either (+), for an overall sentiment on today's news for the company is good, or (-), when the news is bad. More than one plus or minus indicates a more positive (or negative) sentiment.
For example, today's broadcast was, "$IBM (++) $YHOO (+)", meaning that both IBM and Yahoo had higher than average news volume, and that the overall news for IBM was very positive, while the news for Yahoo was moderately positive.
You may follow the news volume breakout broadcasts at: http://twitter.com/marketoutsider
Posted at 01:51 PM in Using MarketOutsider.com | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
One side effect of having a dedicated, talented team is that we often are heads-down coding and planning so much we forget to come up for air now and then to let people know what we're up to.
So what are we up to?
We're shoring up the prototype and working on getting it ready for a broader release. Those of you who have filled out our survey should be expecting an email in the next month or so with access information. (If you haven't filled out the survey yet, it isn't too late!)
We're also working on some new features and tools for financial bloggers to help them expose their sites to our systems, and give them a way to promote themselves and show off a bit to their users.
We may be biased, but we think that we're onto something pretty awesome here. Hopefully soon we can share it with all of you.
Posted at 07:51 AM in About Us | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
An article in the New York Times Business section caught my attention yesterday, "In Volatile Times, Investors Tune in All and Any Predictions".
"[A]mid a financial crisis where the unthinkable has seemingly become routine, Wall Street forecasters — and even the markets themselves — are struggling to get a handle on what will happen next. The result has been a flood of brash pronouncements, as the Cassandras of the financial set try to outdo themselves with increasingly outlandish predictions."
These brash analysts and their outlandish predictions are quoted and heavily discussed in the financial press and blogs. How do you sort through the flood of often conflicting information? In my RSS reader, I've limited myself (!) to 17 financial and 10 business oriented news/blog sources. This makes for about two hundred articles to read every day (and that's excluding all of the other topics I'm interested in). Of course I can't read and think about all of these articles.
This is one of the problems we're trying to solve at MarketOutsider.com. We aren't building yet another predictive system, but rather a system to help sort through all of the financial information. We're starting out simple. Our software, now in alpha, reads articles, identifies companies and summarizes sentiment. We'll be adding more analysis, as we have time, and as we find it useful in our own research.
Posted at 09:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
This past Friday we participated in LivePitch, and event held by Fundinguniverse.
The event was a forum to practice and get feedback on your speed pitching skills. Everyone was given one minute to pitch and one minute for feedback, which is as crazy as it sounds to try and get in everything people want to hear about your company.
We feel we did pretty well, of course we're harder on ourselves than anyone, but we're happy to say we were awarded 2nd place!
The Business & Technology news network Xconomy has a great write-up here.
We really appreciate all of the people who attended and gave us some useful feedback. The most common feedback we received was that everyone loved the name MarketOutsider. We concur!
The one thing I most regret forgetting to mention on stage is that we have posted a survey on our site, and would like people to spend a minute or two to fill it out. Anyone who fills it out will be invited to evaluate an upcoming pre-release version of the site.
Posted at 08:15 AM in About Us | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
As we've just recently opened this blog up, as one of the authors you will see post here, I'd like to introduce myself.
I'm Bryce Baril, CEO and one of the two founders of MarketOutsider.com.
My background is originally in science; my degree being in Biochemistry. I worked in the lab for a while, but transitioned to programming where I spent most of my time trying to find patterns in vast amounts of data. After a fairly long tenure in the non-profit science world, I transitioned to work on the search engine of a fairly high-profile website.
I consider myself a dabbler when it comes to finance. I've had some small accounts in the past where I've made some financial plays, but I always keep an eye on the markets. As I continue to dabble I'll write up my experiences here, as well as tricks and uses I find for our technology here at MarketOutsider.com.
Other topics I plan to cover are Machine Learning, Natural Language Processing, news, life as a startup, and anything else that suits my fancy.
Posted at 07:49 AM in About Us | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sometimes stories take a while until they reach critical mass and the market makes an adjustment to reflect the event.
A recent case of this is the Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc. (NYSE:BUD) takeover bid by Belgian brewer InBev NV. The story isn't over yet, but I've listed some of the news to-date below the post.
(Click images for bigger charts)
It took a long time for this story to fully
develop. The first rumors were just over a year before the real impact
happened. There were small revivals of the story that didn't resonate
through other channels much until a couple weeks before May 23.
In this case, the story had been percolating for quite some time, but
the catalyst looks to have been the options traders. Perhaps their
actions finally gave some credence to the buyout rumors enough for
everyone to take notice and act.
Once the dam broke, it was
pretty much too late. Only one May 23rd story listed below preceded
the spike, and not really by enough to read and then act upon.
What can you do? Track stories as they progress. If you think that there is truth to the story, either it is lent credence by the fact that it just won't go away, or the stories are talking about some new activity that would also support the story, you might think about acting on it. However, once the story is big news, you are probably too late. (Although there is the possibility of a short position on news spikes like this, a topic for another post...) Be sure you look at other outstanding stories for the same company! Most companies have more than one concurrent story.
Unresolved question: What triggered the options buyers to start buying the June call options? A leak, enough momentum gained by the story, or another news source that I'm not able to find?
Update: The story continues: on Wed Jun 11, the story become even more official with InBev making their bid. Anheuser-Busch stock rose to over $62 per share in after-hours trading.
News Timeline:
Feb 15, 2007 The first buyout rumor begins
00:00am Anheuser-Busch está cada vez mais próxima da InBev - Valor Economico (Brazilian Nespaper - Portugese language)
10:16am Anheuser-Busch declines comment on InBev report - Reuters
2:39pm InBev, Anheuser-Busch rise on merger talk - MarketWatch
3:33pm Brewers' shares rise on reported talks - BusinessWeek
Feb 16, 2007
Merger Speculation Sends Anheuser-Busch Shares to Two-Year High - SeekingAlpha
June 7, 2007 Buyout rumor is revived, this time sparked by InBev
00:00 am Fusie InBev en Anheuser-Busch wordt onvermijdelijk - Trends (Belgian Magazine, Dutch language)
10:42 am InBev execs say Anheuser merger inevitable: magazine - Reuters
July 5, 2007 The rumor just won't die out
1:00 pm A Beer Bash for Bud and InBev? - Wall Street Journal
July 23, 2007 Analysts start getting on board with the merger talk
11:56 am Bud-InBev Deal Chorus Grows - Wall Street Journal
July 24, 2007
Citigroup Predicts Merger Of Beer Giants Anheuser-Busch & InBev - SeekingAlpha
October 18, 2007 Beer Merger talk again, just general industry, not about BUD/InBev
Why Consolidation Storm Is Brewing in Beer Industry - Wall Street Journal
Feb 1, 2008 The rumor is revived after months of dormancy
Anheuser-Busch Dances With InBev - Wall Street Journal
April 11, 2008
12:31pm Clues to the Anheuser-Busch Takeover Mystery - Wall Street Journal Deal Blog
April 24, 2008
Anheuser Posts Drop in Net - Wall Street Journal
May 6, 2008 Options rally
Traders Circle Anheuser-Busch As Buyout Speculation Surfaces - Wall Street Journal
May 7, 2008 June call options at $55 strike price become active, no mention of InBev
12:38pm Surely, This Bud Must Be for Somebody - Wall Street Journal
May 8, 2008 People link June call options with InBev buyout speculation
Bud Not for Sale? Market Doubts It - Wall Street Journal
May 22, 2008 Speculation noticed in the Options markets
Takeover Speculation Drives Trade in Frontier Oil, Anheuser - Wall Street Journal
May 23, 2008 Explosion, everyone writes multiple articles about the news.
9:15am InBev May Buy Anheuser-Busch (BUD) - 247wallst.com
9:55am InBev says no comment on Anheuser-Busch bid report - Reuters
10:30am This Bud's for $46 Billion? - Portfolio.com
10:52am 99 Beer Call Options On the Wall... WSJ
11:07am InBev say not commenting on Anheuser bid report - Reuters
11:39am InBev Declines To Comment On Talk Of Imminent Anheuser Offer DJ
12:15pm Cheers, Mate: An Update on InBev and Anheuser-Busch WSJ
12:30pm Stock Rating Reiterations Midday Update: BUD CRN DRQ DJ
1:27pm Anheuser-Busch: Is Resistance Futile? WSJ
2:06pm Anheuser-Busch,RI Beer Company Settle '03 Nightclub Fire Suit DJ
3:03pm Afternoon Reading: Is This Bud for InBev? WSJ
3:19pm InBev Mulls Bid For Rival Anheuser WSJ
... And many, many more, >40 articles for the day.
Posted at 10:38 PM in Current Affairs | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)